A 2028 Forecast from Today: AI's Productivity Boom, a Bust for Workers

Investment analysis firm Citrini Research has sketched a provocative vision for 2028, framing it as a memo from the future. The report, circulating widely online, describes an economy where artificial intelligence finally delivers massive productivity gains, but at a steep human cost.

In the scenario, corporate profits and stock markets initially soar as companies replace swaths of staff with AI systems. The S&P 500 approaches 8000. Yet, the celebration is short-lived. Mass layoffs lead to a collapse in consumer spending, prompting firms to cut more jobs to protect margins—a vicious cycle Citrini calls a 'negative feedback loop with no natural brake.' The result is 'ghost GDP': economic output rises while wages disappear.

The report suggests this could trigger a housing crisis distinct from 2008, where widespread job losses, not bad loans, cause the damage. Markets, however, might remain eerily stable, cushioned by automated trading that obscures real distress.

A key shift happens in payments. Autonomous AI agents, indifferent to traditional finance brands, begin routing around credit card networks. They settle transactions directly using stablecoins on blockchains like Solana, drawn by lower costs and faster speeds. This move could dismantle the card networks' core business.

The outcome, as Bitwise adviser Jeff Park notes, is a dramatic widening of wealth inequality, where owning assets becomes paramount. The memo is dated June 2028, but it was published in February 2026. With current trends in layoffs and crypto infrastructure development, some observers note the imagined dominoes already appear to be tipping.