New Bill Aims to Block Lawmakers from Betting on Their Own Votes

A new Senate bill seeks to stop elected officials from placing bets on their own political power. The TRUST Act, introduced by Democratic Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar, would explicitly ban federal officeholders, their spouses, and dependent children from trading on prediction market contracts tied to government actions or elections.

“Americans deserve to know their elected officials are working for them—not placing bets on political outcomes they can directly influence,” Merkley stated. Klobuchar called the prohibition “common sense.”

The legislation arrives as prediction markets have exploded in size and scope. Platforms like Kalshi, a regulated U.S. exchange, and the crypto-based Polymarket now handle billions in wagers on everything from election results to Federal Reserve decisions. This expansion has heightened concerns that officials could use insider knowledge to profit. A senator negotiating a bill, for instance, could bet on its passage before the vote.

The political environment for such a ban is complex. While the bill’s sponsors are in the minority, the underlying issue has drawn wary attention from both parties. Many Republicans share a discomfort with the idea of politicians profiting from bets on government business, echoing the bipartisan sentiment that fueled the STOCK Act of 2012.

Enforcement is a key question. The TRUST Act would task the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with policing violations, a shift from relying on congressional ethics committees. The prediction market industry is watching closely. Some executives quietly believe a narrow ban could protect the sector from future scandals, while others fear it’s a first step toward broader restrictions.

With prediction markets now a global, digital reality, the bill focuses on the conduct of U.S. officials rather than trying to control offshore platforms. Its fate rests with a Republican-led Senate, but it sets a clear marker: as betting on politics becomes mainstream, the rules for those in power may need to change first.