The 2026 Office: A Wall Street Veteran Predicts AI's First Major Job Cuts Are Closer Than You Think

A warning is circulating from a corner of Wall Street that many corporate suites would rather ignore. Adam Citrini, a former quantitative researcher at Citadel Securities who now runs his own analysis firm, argues that artificial intelligence is poised to erase millions of American office jobs by 2030, with the first major wave of cuts starting next year.

Citrini’s research, detailed in a recent analysis, states that between 5 and 10 million white-collar positions could be displaced. His logic is starkly economic: after two years of massive investment in AI, companies need to show a return. The clearest path, he contends, is to cut payrolls. "The easiest line item to cut is labor," Citrini noted.

He identifies 2026 as a turning point. By then, early corporate AI projects will have generated enough performance data to justify large-scale restructuring. Sectors like finance, law, and tech are expected to lead. Banks have already begun reducing staff in areas like compliance and research where AI excels. Within tech itself, giants like Meta have pointed to AI as a reason for reshaping their engineering teams.

This outlook challenges more optimistic forecasts from economists who believe AI will create new roles even as it transforms old ones. David Autor of MIT, for example, suggests AI could empower, not replace, many professionals. But Citrini argues corporate incentives are wired for cuts, not augmentation, especially with pressure to boost margins.

The political dimension adds complexity. Such widespread job loss among college-educated professionals, dispersed across the country, presents an unprecedented policy challenge. The current administration in Washington has emphasized deregulation and private-sector leadership in AI, with limited focus on new worker protections.

Ultimately, Citrini’s case rests on a critical mismatch: AI capability advances in months, while institutional responses crawl. Even if new jobs emerge in the long run, the coming transition could be abrupt and severe for millions who never saw it coming.